As Washington's schedule gets harder, threat of forward pass looms

The Huskies will face a more talented slate of quarterbacks the rest of the way.

Washington’s journey to last season’s Pac-12 championship required a victory against the reigning Heisman Trophy winner and eventual No. 1 NFL Draft pick. Also, two wins against a Heisman finalist who wound up the No. 12 pick, and another against a quarterback among the best in college football this season.

Through the first four games of its inaugural Big Ten schedule, Washington has, perhaps appropriately, seen more opposing talent at tailback than quarterback.

The Huskies’ first four conference opponents — Northwestern, Rutgers, Michigan and Iowa — happen to be the bottom four teams in the league in total passing and yards per attempt, and those schools constitute four of the bottom five teams in passing efficiency. In fact, I’m using their team rankings, rather than individual quarterback rankings, because both Northwestern and Michigan have already used multiple starters.

It hasn’t been quite like facing Caleb Williams, Bo Nix and Cam Ward. That’s about to change after the Huskies’ bye week, though, because their remaining five games feature some of the top passers in the league, and certainly the top passers on their Big Ten schedule this season. In UW’s final five games, the Huskies will face three of the league’s top four quarterbacks, in terms of passing efficiency, and four of the top seven in total passing yards.

Even after its 40-16 loss at Iowa, Washington still leads FBS in completion percentage allowed, and ranks second nationally in yards per attempt allowed and third in pass efficiency defense. The upcoming schedule will challenge those marks to a greater degree than what UW has faced to this point.

Last week, for example, Iowa rushed 37 times and passed only 14. The week prior, Michigan rushed 37 times and passed 25. Next week’s opponent, No. 16 Indiana, has passed for more yards than the Hawkeyes and Wolverines combined.

“We’re going to see a substantial difference in what we’re defending, and it’s going to be a great responsibility and great challenge to keep the defense continuing to play well,” UW coach Jedd Fisch said. “Offensively, we’ve got to find ways to score more than 24 points a game. We’re going to try to get to 30. We’re going to have to see. Because I think these next few weeks, the type of offenses we’re going to play, we’ll have more possessions, because it won’t be as long of the ground and pound.”

Here is a look at each of the opposing quarterbacks on Washington’s remaining schedule.

Oct. 26: Kurtis Rourke, at No. 16 Indiana (6-0, 3-0)

Stats: 118-for-160 (73.8%) for 1,752 yards (11.0 per attempt) with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions

Remaining schedule: vs. Nebraska, vs. Washington, at Michigan State, vs. Michigan, bye, at Ohio State, vs. Purdue

Rourke leads the Big Ten in passer rating and yards per attempt, helming Indiana’s impressive turnaround under new coach Curt Cignetti. The Ohio University transfer was fun in the MAC, too, particularly in 2022, when he threw for 3,256 yards with 25 touchdown passes. He threw for 380 yards and three touchdowns in a win over Northwestern last week and also eclipsed the 300-yard mark against UCLA and Maryland. Among FBS players with 100 or more dropbacks, Rourke ranks 29th with an average depth of target of 10.3 yards (Will Rogers has an ADOT of 8.2, for reference), per Pro Football Focus. He’s thrived on run-pass option throws.

Nov. 2: Miller Moss, vs. USC (3-3, 1-3)

Stats: 149-for-234 (63.7%) for 1,618 yards (6.9 per attempt) with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions

Remaining schedule: at Maryland, vs. Rutgers (Friday), at Washington, bye, vs. Nebraska, at UCLA, vs. Notre Dame

Moss’ star has dimmed a bit since his stellar performance in a big win over LSU (27-for-36, 378 yards). He managed only 220 yards on 34 attempts in an overtime loss to Penn State, and 200 yards (and two interceptions) on 38 attempts in a loss at Minnesota. But he’s capable of highlight-reel throws and the Trojans lead the Big Ten in pass attempts despite playing only six games.

Nov. 9: Drew Allar, at No. 3 Penn State (6-0, 3-0)

Stats: 103-for-146 (70.5%) for 1,492 yards (10.2 per attempt) with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions

Remaining schedule: bye, at Wisconsin, vs. Ohio State, vs. Washington, at Purdue, at Minnesota, vs. Maryland

Though Penn State ranks 15th in the Big Ten in pass attempts per game, Allar ranks seventh in the league in passing yards per game and second in yards per attempt. The former five-star recruit is coming off a career-high 391 passing yards — on a career-high 43 attempts — in Penn State’s 33-30 comeback victory in overtime at USC. The book on Allar as a first-year starter last year was that he took great care of the ball — 25 touchdown passes, two interceptions — but rarely made explosive plays. He also completed only 59.9 percent of his passes. That figure is way up this year, as is Allard’s YPA (from 6.8 in 2023). Though he also threw three interceptions, Allar’s performance in the win at USC was the first time he made big plays to help the Nittany Lions win a close game against a talented opponent. 

Nov. 15 (Friday): Ethan Garbers, vs. UCLA (1-5, 0-4)

Stats: 92-for-153 (60.1 percent) for 1,101 yards (7.2 per attempt) with four touchdowns and nine interceptions

Remaining schedule: at Rutgers, at Nebraska, vs. Iowa (Friday), at Washington (Friday), vs. USC, vs. Fresno State

This is a familiar face, as Garbers signed with the Huskies in their 2020 recruiting class, then transferred to UCLA after that pandemic-shortened season. He shared starting duties with Dante Moore last year and stepped into the job on a full-time basis in Year 1 of the DeShaun Foster era. It hasn’t gone particularly well. Garbers did return from injury to start against Minnesota and wound up throwing for a season-high 293 yards and a touchdown … but he also threw three interceptions, bumping his league-leading total to nine. He’s also been sacked 12 times in his last three games. UCLA hasn’t thrown the ball or run the ball well this season, but the Bruins do rank sixth in the Big Ten in pass attempts per game — perhaps partially as a function of playing from behind — so they’re at least going to try. Third-year sophomore Justyn Martin started for an injured Garbers at Penn State and completed 22-of-30 for 167 yards and a touchdown in a 27-11 defeat. He’d be next up if the Bruins make a change.

Nov. 30: Dillon Gabriel, at No. 2 Oregon (6-0, 3-0)

Stats: 153-for-201 (76.1%) for 1,808 yards (9.0 per attempt) with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions

Remaining schedule: at Purdue (Friday), vs. Illinois, at Michigan, vs. Maryland, at Wisconsin, bye, vs. Washington

Gabriel threw for 341 yards in Oregon’s upset of Ohio State last week and leads the Big Ten in completion percentage (and is second nationally); he’s fourth in the league in passing efficiency and yards per attempt. Between Bo Nix and Gabriel, the Ducks could wind up with the two most experienced quarterbacks in college football history in back-to-back seasons, as Gabriel can break Nix’s record of 61 career starts if he plays 13 games. The left-handed transfer from Oklahoma can run, too, though he hasn’t done it all that often through the Ducks’ first six games, even if he did take four carries for 32 yards and a touchdown against the Buckeyes. Gabriel was sacked seven times in Oregon’s first two games but hasn’t been since. All three of his interceptions have come in the red zone, including two against Michigan State. As long as Oregon keeps those issues in check — and keeps winning — Gabriel will be part of the Heisman discussion.

— Christian Caple, On Montlake