Red-zone issues, penalties, missed kicks make Washington a metrics outlier

The Huskies' success rates are stellar. Yet they're 3-2.

In order to distill the maddening nature of Washington’s two losses this season, coach Jedd Fisch referenced the playing surface of a different sport.

It’s exactly 10 feet from the hardwood to the rim of a basketball hoop. The way Fisch sees it, that distance — minus a foot, actually — is all that separates the Huskies from an unbeaten record.

“We’re one basketball hoop away from 5-0,” Fisch said. “We’re three yards away. Nine feet. We’ve got to convert on fourth-and-one on the 1 (against Washington State), and convert on fourth-and-2 at the 2 (at Rutgers), and we’d have two different outcomes. And then we’re the best story in college football, because then we’re a team with 21 new starters and 21 new coaches that are 5-0.”

The story instead: the Washington Huskies are somehow 3-2 despite ranking top-20 nationally in both yards per play and yards per play allowed, and they managed to lose their last game, 21-18 at Rutgers, despite lopsided yardage totals in their favor.

Advanced metrics also suggest a better record. UW ranks 15th nationally in expected points added (EPA) margin, per CollegeFootballInsiders.com — the 14 teams ranked ahead of the Huskies have combined for four losses this season, and none have more than a single defeat — with its offensive success rate and defensive success rate both among the top-10 in FBS. In spite of that, the Huskies rank 89th nationally in scoring and 82nd in points per drive.

As Fisch mentioned, Washington’s most glaring issues have come in the red zone. Penalties also crushed the Huskies in losses to Washington State and Rutgers, and a much smaller handful of defensive breakdowns have also contributed to a metrics-defying start for UW in 2024.

Let’s examine where the Huskies have fallen short in spite of mostly efficient play on both sides of the ball.

Some big-picture numbers

The Huskies are officially 13-for-18 in the red zone — possessions during which any play begins at or inside the opponent’s 20-yard line — with nine touchdowns and four field goals. Their overall red-zone scoring percentage (72.2) ranks 117th in FBS and ahead of only Northwestern and Michigan State in the Big Ten.

UW’s red-zone touchdown percentage — a far more important, more telling metric — is a mere 50 percent, which is tied for 106th nationally. They’ve thrown five touchdown passes in the red zone (all to Denzel Boston) and rushed for four (all by Jonah Coleman). Of their five empty trips, two have resulted in missed field goals (both at Rutgers) and three have been turnovers on downs — including the two Fisch referenced that came at or inside the opponent’s 2-yard line.

In one instance — the speed option in the Apple Cup — Fisch called a play he probably shouldn’t have, but insisted afterward that it was more a failure of execution. In the second instance, the Huskies successfully schemed open Giles Jackson on a play-action pass from the 2-yard line, only for Rutgers’ Tyreem Powell to deflect Will Rogers’ pass and force an incompletion. You win some, you lose some.

Obviously, the third-down numbers aren’t going to look great for a team with six field-goal attempts and three failed fourth-down attempts in 18 red-zone trips, and sure enough, the Huskies are 3-for-11 on third down in the red zone … and they converted their first three attempts of the season.

Indeed, UW has not converted a third-down try in the red zone since the Eastern Michigan game, failing on its last eight attempts (and that’s not counting the low-block penalty against Cam Davis in the Rutgers game that took a first down off the board and moved UW out of the red zone). Included in Washington’s current 0-for-8 slump on red-zone third downs are five plays of third-and-three or fewer, so a good number of these are highly convertible. Of the eight failed attempts, five have been passes and three have been runs.

A closer look

Not counting no-play penalties, the Huskies have run 54 plays from scrimmage in the red zone this season. Applying the Football Outsiders yardage thresholds for success rate — 50 percent of yards-to-go on first down, 70 percent on second down, and first-down yardage on third and fourth down — UW has been successful on 42.6 percent of its red-zone plays. That isn’t all that bad of a ratio, but it was paltry in the Apple Cup. Only one of their eight red-zone plays against Washington State was successful (though a 9-yard completion to Boston on third-and-goal from the 10 wasn’t so bad). 

The Huskies have a 31/23 run/pass split in the red zone this season, meaning they run the ball slightly more inside the 20-yard line than they do overall, as their run/pass split for the season is essentially 50-50 (162 rushes, 163 passes).

Coleman leads the team in red-zone touches with 21 carries and a rushing success rate of 38.1 percent. He’s scored all four of UW’s rushing touchdowns in the red zone, but also has been tackled for a loss or no gain six times. It’s not all their fault, but Washington’s offensive line has been hit-or-miss in obvious run situations near the goal line.

Will Rogers is 11-for-22 for 100 yards with four touchdowns inside the red zone. Boston has been the top receiving threat with six catches on 10 targets. Five of those six catches were touchdowns (one came from Demond Williams Jr.), and the other, on UW’s penultimate offensive play in the Apple Cup, came up one yard short. Jackson has caught three of his six targets, though only one could be considered a successful play. Jeremiah Hunter has been targeted only twice in the red zone, with one, 10-yard reception. Decker DeGraaf has caught one of his two red-zone targets for nine yards. Keleki Latu caught his only red-zone target for a 15-yard gain on third-and-10 against Eastern Michigan. Quentin Moore and Audric Harris have each been targeted with a single incompletion.

The good news for the Huskies: their defense is playing lights out in the red zone. UW ranks top-10 nationally in both opponent scoring percentage and opponent touchdown percentage, owing in some part to goal-line stands against Eastern Michigan and Northwestern. It’s impressive enough that the Huskies’ first five opponents have driven inside the red zone only 11 times, but UW has allowed touchdowns on only four of those trips.

About the field goals

Remember last offseason, when maybe the foremost personnel concern was whether a sophomore Grady Gross could adequately replace steady veteran Peyton Henry?

Gross quickly assuaged those worries, making 18 of his 22 field-goal attempts with a long of 47, including the game-winner in the Apple Cup. On more than one occasion — including against Texas in the College Football Playoff semifinal — his right leg accounted for a point total larger than the game’s final margin.

It’s taken only 11 attempts in five games this season, though, for Gross to match his total of four misses in 15 games last year. Three of those came in Friday’s loss to Rutgers, from 42, 37 and 55 yards, and the other came the week prior against Northwestern, from 51 yards on the final play of the first half.

Gross made his first try against Rutgers, from 22 yards. The Huskies trailed 7-3 when he missed from 42 yards in the second quarter, and they trailed 21-10 when he missed from 37 in the fourth quarter. His 55-yarder on the game’s final play appeared to have the distance, but missed left. None of his misses seemed poorly struck, necessarily. For whatever reason, he just pulled them.

“None of us would have ever expected us to miss some kicks,” Fisch said. “Grady Gross is one of the best kickers in the country. Every now and then, I guess there’s a fluke day that occurs, but never in a million years would I have guessed that, nor do I ever think it would happen again.”

Penalties and unforced errors

On its first possession at Rutgers, Washington had a first down at the Scarlet Knights’ 11-yard line after a roughing the passer penalty … but a false start pushed UW back to the 16, and the Huskies wound up settling for a field goal.

They had a similar play in the Apple Cup, committing false start on second-and-9 at WSU’s 10-yard line, and also wound up settling for a short field goal on that possession.

The low-block flag against Davis, called on third-and-2 from Rutgers’ 20-yard line, wiped out a first-down completion to Jackson and preceded Gross’ miss from 42 yards.

Mishandled snaps have been a problem, too. Gross’ missed 37-yarder at Rutgers came after a fumbled snap on first down from the Scarlet Knights’ 25-yard line, which pushed UW back to a second-and-14.

It’s not just the red zone

If we’re answering the question of why Washington’s overall success rate doesn’t correlate with its total scoring, a handful of critical errors outside the red zone must be considered, too.

Against Rutgers alone, the Huskies had two 15-yard, dead-ball penalties that effectively killed drives in the first and third quarters. The first came after UW had moved to Rutgers’ 38-yard line with a first down on the game’s first possession. The penalty made it second-and-23, and Rogers wound up throwing incomplete on a no-man’s-land fourth-and-9 from the 37.

Don’t forget, either, about the fumbled shotgun snap on third-and-7 from WSU’s 22-yard line on the final play of the first quarter. Gross followed with a 44-yard field goal, but the dropped snap cost the Huskies a chance to sustain what had been a promising drive.

And it’s not just the offense

OK, so it’s mostly the offense. But there have been some defensive outliers, too, plays made by UW’s opponent that helped it score points in scenarios unlikely to yield such outcomes.

The first came against Washington State, with the Cougars facing third-and-20 from UW’s 25-yard line late in the first half. The Huskies sent only four defenders to the quarterback as John Mateer took a shotgun snap, paused a beat, then bolted forward on a draw, but still couldn’t corral him. Mateer bounced outside to the left and outran everybody to the end zone for a deflating 25-yard score on a down-and-distance that should never, ever end in points. (It was somewhat reminiscent of Cam Ward’s 25-yard touchdown pass to Kyle Williams in last year’s Apple Cup, a third-and-19 in the final seconds of the first half that tied the score.)

In the same game, the Huskies committed defensive holding on a third-and-18 that otherwise resulted in a sack; that drive eventually yielded WSU’s final touchdown. And a Rutgers team that passed for only 115 yards and 4.8 per attempt managed to convert third-and-10 and third-and-9 through the air on its first touchdown drive.

Oh, and that illegal substitution penalty that negated a blocked field goal — and led directly to a Rutgers touchdown before halftime — probably deserves mention, too.

What now?

For whatever reason, the Huskies underperform their own offensive standard once they move into the red zone, though not by such an overwhelming margin that you should assume they can’t fix it. A tipped pass here, a miscommunication there, a bad playcall every now and then — these are items that a good coaching staff will address throughout a season, but that might be expected as a brand new staff adjusts to an overhauled roster. By the time Michael Penix Jr. back-shouldered that touchdown to Rome Odunze in the final minutes of the first Oregon game last year, for example, how many times had the two repped that route?

Fisch is correct that UW’s season might look different if it had converted the aforementioned fourth downs, but the Huskies have had plenty of other opportunities to turn production into points. Gross has missed a couple kicks. Rogers and UW’s centers have flubbed some snaps. A couple penalties have set them back. Opposing defenses have stiffened against the run in the red zone, and the Huskies never look more like a group of guys still getting to know one another than when they appear close to scoring.

After watching the Rutgers film, Fisch concluded: “(We’re) certainly a team in the process of getting better. (We’re) certainly a team that has shown a lot of potential to be really good, and as we’re continuing to build the program the way we want it, I think we’ll continue to see more and more flashes of that, and less and less flashes, maybe, of some negative plays here or there.”

— Christian Caple, On Montlake