Washington at midseason: The good, the bad and what to expect next

How have the 2024 Huskies navigated the front half of their schedule?

A few folks came to the Michigan game by boat.

Is it midseason already?

Last year, this juncture arrived in the form of Washington’s epic home victory over Oregon. This year, it arrives after another critical win at a sold-out Husky Stadium, though under far different circumstances.

The Huskies are 4-2 under first-year coach Jedd Fisch, and 2-1 in their first three Big Ten games — the most recent of which, a 27-17 victory over Michigan, will go down as Fisch’s first signature win at the school. That followed an ugly loss at Rutgers, which came two weeks after a disappointing defeat in the Apple Cup.

What’s been good? What’s been not so good? Which players have stood out? What should you watch for throughout the back half of the season?

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The general vibe

A bit better than it was a week ago, yeah? Washington’s win over Michigan reset the Huskies’ ceiling after their disappointing loss at Rutgers; if you choose to view it through the lens of preseason expectations, you could argue UW swapped one of its likely victories for one of its likely defeats (for the record, I had UW 4-2 at this point, with a win in the Apple Cup and a loss to the Wolverines). None of UW’s remaining opponents has looked so good that you should chalk up a loss in advance, but the Huskies also haven’t looked so good that you shouldn’t expect them to drop another couple. Still, Year 1 of the Jedd Fisch era is off to a generally positive start, with capable offense buttressed by at-times stellar defense, and the Huskies showed against Michigan that they can play a game largely void of penalties and other self-inflicted strife.

Three good things

1. The defense, especially against the pass

Washington State’s John Mateer still is the best quarterback the Huskies have faced this season, and their first five FBS opponents rank thusly in national passing efficiency: 60th, 24th, 130th, 85th and 127th (Iowa, Saturday’s opponent, ranks 116th). Still, they could hardly have navigated the first half of the season any better, leading the country in pass efficiency defense while tied for the national lead in yards per attempt allowed. UW’s defense ranks 16th in FBS in expected points added (EPA) per play, per CollegeFootballInsiders.com, and the Huskies rank 10th nationally in scoring defense. They’ve yet to allow an opponent to score more than 24 points in a game, and three Big Ten opponents have managed 5, 21 and 17.

There still are some questions about UW’s run defense, particularly as the Huskies have withstood some injuries along the defensive front. Kaleb Johnson presents an enormous challenge at Iowa, and the schedule from Oct. 26 forward features far better quarterback talent than what UW has faced so far. But coordinator Steve Belichick has his group ready to play every week, and he’s shown a willingness to mold his scheme based on opponent.

2. A largely efficient offense

In spite of all the Huskies lost this offseason, they rank 17th nationally in yards per play, 13th in passing efficiency, and their starting tailback is one of five in the Big Ten averaging 100-plus yards rushing per game at midseason. It took nearly six full games for Will Rogers to throw his first interception — he threw 12 touchdown passes first — and the senior Mississippi State transfer ranks top-five nationally in completion percentage. Denzel Boston is one off the FBS lead in receiving touchdowns with eight. Giles Jackson is having his best season as a sixth-year senior. Keleki Latu has filled in capably for senior tight end Quentin Moore. 

Despite losing their top 14 contributors from 2023, in terms of snaps played, the Huskies have assembled a top-20 offense — in terms of efficiency, at least — under Fisch. They do have some issues, and we’ll get to those, but they’ve moved the ball probably better than anyone expected.

3. The offensive line has held up

It’s far from perfect, and their PFF grades don’t paint the picture of a great unit, and you saw Michigan get to Rogers more consistently than any opponent before it. But Washington’s new-look o-line still has helped the Huskies to an encouraging offensive start, and hasn’t been the primary culprit for either of UW’s two losses. There are some injuries to monitor — Maximus McCree has stepped in for Soane Faasolo at left tackle, and starting guard Gaard Memmelaar was banged up last week — but the Huskies also are getting more out of Landen Hatchett each week. Most importantly, you don’t get the impression that UW’s o-line is a limiting factor that must be schemed around when constructing the game plan, and they seem to be getting better as the season progresses.

Honorable mention: Will Rogers, more specifically; the linebackers; early returns on Elinneus Davis; talented freshmen; Voi Tunuufi’s versatility.

Three bad things

1. Penalties

The Huskies made progress here against Michigan, committing only two penalties for 20 yards (a third was declined) with no false starts and no dead-ball fouls. They still rank 101st in FBS in penalties per game and 109th in FBS in penalty yards per game, though, owing largely to fouls committed against Eastern Michigan, Washington State and Rutgers. It’s no coincidence those latter two were losses. 

2. Red zone

It was encouraging to see Washington score touchdowns on its first two red-zone trips against Michigan, and the Huskies punched in another on Jonah Coleman’s 1-yard leap in the fourth quarter. They did have an empty trip at the end of the first half, though, due to a blocked field goal, and settled for a field goal early in the fourth quarter after driving to the 10-yard line. Overall, the Huskies rank 103rd in FBS in red-zone touchdown percentage, another statistic lagging in some part due to their performance in the Rutgers loss. UW’s struggles near the goal line are a big reason why the Huskies rank 92nd in scoring despite impressive efficiency marks.

3. D-line depth

It’s not a dire situation … yet. Jayvon Parker is out for the season, which hurts, but Fisch said he does expect Sebastian Valdez to play against Iowa despite leaving the Michigan game with an arm injury. That’s good news, because the Huskies can’t afford to lose much more on the defensive interior. With Valdez out against Michigan, the Huskies largely relied upon Jacob Bandes, Logan Sagapolu and Elinneus Davis. Those are three capable players, but in a perfect world, the Huskies would have one or two other reliable contributors to help spell them; maybe that can be junior-college transfer Bryce Butler, who should be available this week. Keeping Valdez healthy will be key as the Huskies face more dynamic offenses later in the season, and run defense hasn’t been a strength to begin with. Zach Durfee’s health is worth monitoring, too, though UW is more equipped to handle a loss or two at edge rusher. Tunuufi, who can play anywhere up front, could be an increasingly valuable player going forward.

Honorable mention: Field-goal kicking and special teams, generally; clock management; lack of touches for Jeremiah Hunter; players from either team running onto the field during a play.

Offensive MVP, non-QB

RB Jonah Coleman: You expected Coleman to be among the Huskies’ best players, and nobody has been more consistent through their first six games. He’s rushed for 601 yards and five touchdowns on 90 carries, and has added 14 receptions for 119 yards. Coleman blends quickness, vision and power in a pretty special way, and ranks fourth in the country, per PFF, in missed tackles forced, and his 24 rushes of 10-plus yards are tied for the national lead. 

Honorable mention: Denzel Boston; Giles Jackson

Defensive MVPs

Carson Bruener and Alphonzo Tuputala: The senior captains are each deserving of mention here. They are the two leading tacklers — Bruener with 36 and Tuputala with 30 — and also lead the team in “stops,” a metric tracked by PFF that measures tackles on unsuccessful plays for the offense (Tuputala has 17 and Bruener has 15). They are UW’s highest-graded tacklers by PFF, and Tuputala is tied for the team lead with 2.5 sacks. Bruener is playing through a shoulder injury that has caused him pretty obvious pain at times. Tuputala often lines up on the edge in addition to his more standard “box” duties. The two have combined to miss just three tackles this season, per PFF. UW’s defense would look a lot different without them.

Honorable mention: Kam Fabiculanan; Voi Tunuufi

Toughest remaining game

at Oregon, Nov. 30: Went back and forth between this and Penn State, considering the length of that trip and the Nittany Lions’ stout defense, and Oregon’s sort of “meh” performance at times this season. But I think the Ducks are still progressing toward their ceiling, and that Dillon Gabriel’s dual-threat abilities will stress UW’s defense in a way other opponents cannot. This is a good time to remind that the Huskies have only two home games left on the schedule — USC and UCLA — and that neither is against a team traveling out of its time zone.

Six opposing players to watch

One for each team left on Washington’s schedule.

RB Kaleb Johnson, Iowa: He’s second nationally with 771 yards rushing in five games, and an eye-popping clip of 7.95 per rush. His 10 rushing touchdowns lead the Big Ten and are tied for third in FBS. Johnson has forced only two fewer tackles than Jonah Coleman in one less game, per PFF, and his numbers against loaded boxes are outrageous, too. Belichick called him the best skill player UW has faced so far. 

QB Kurtis Rourke, Indiana: The Ohio transfer has teamed with a bunch of James Madison transfers — and transfers from other schools, to be fair — to kickstart the Hoosiers’ offense, which ranks seventh nationally in yards per play and third in scoring. Rourke ranks fourth in FBS in passing efficiency and leads the Big Ten with 14 passing touchdowns.

QB Miller Moss, USC: It’s been sort of an up-and-down year for Moss, considering his two interceptions and 200 passing yards in a loss at Minnesota. But I’ve seen him do things with his arm that few opposing quarterbacks have done against Washington this season, and he’s certainly among the top tier of passers UW will see.

DE Abdul Carter, Penn State: The star edge rusher has eight tackles for loss and three sacks in five games, and will have a rowdy “White Out” crowd behind him.

RB T.J. Harden: He’s the Bruins’ leading rusher and leads the team in receptions. 

DE Jordan Burch, Oregon: He’s got five sacks in five games. The Ducks have a bunch of offensive weapons, too, but a dynamic pass rusher is of most concern.

Midseason Big Ten power rankings

Though 12 teams have only played five games.

1. Ohio State 

Record: 5-0, 2-0

Last week: Beat Iowa, 35-7

This week: at Oregon

The Buckeyes are so talented, an undefeated season should be a technical requirement for awarding them the national championship.

2. Oregon

Record: 5-0, 2-0

Last week: Beat Michigan State, 31-10

This week: vs. Ohio State

Eugene is the center of the college football universe this weekend, even if the 12-team CFP era has lessened the stakes for the loser. We’re about to learn more about Dan Lanning’s team than any of their first five games taught us.

3. Penn State

Record: 5-0, 2-0

Last week: Beat UCLA, 27-11

This week: at USC

James Franklin told local media this week that Penn State has to bus to Harrisburg for its flight to Los Angeles, because the runway isn’t long enough at the airport in State College. Something about fuel. I bet they still win.

4. Indiana

Record: 6-0, 3-0

Last week: Beat Northwestern, 41-24

This week: Idle

Well, well, well, how the turntables: after six weeks, the Big Ten’s only bowl eligible team is Indiana. The Hoosiers get a week off before putting their unbeaten record on the line against Nebraska. 

5. Nebraska

Record: 5-1, 2-1

Last week: Beat Rutgers, 14-7

This week: Idle

This is still a flawed team, but the Cornhuskers nevertheless are one win away from their first bowl game since 2016. A top-10 defense is carrying a middling offense.

6. Illinois

Record: 4-1, 1-1

Last week: Idle

This week: vs. Purdue

A Week 2 win over Kansas is looking less impressive by the day, but the Illini should be 5-1 when they host a beatable Michigan team next week.

7. Washington

Record: 4-2, 2-1

Last week: Beat Michigan, 27-17

This week: at Iowa

If the Huskies had taken care of business against Washington State and Rutgers — or, heck, even just Rutgers — where would you slot them in these rankings? 

8. Michigan

Record: 4-2, 2-1

Last week: Lost to Washington, 27-17

This week: Idle

It defies logic that in 2024, the defending national champion can’t go out and find itself a capable starting quarterback. The Wolverines have tried three already this season. Maybe Jack Tuttle is the one who sticks.

9. Rutgers

Record: 4-1, 1-1

Last week: Lost to Nebraska, 14-7

This week: vs. Wisconsin

The unbeaten dream is over for the Scarlet Knights after a slugfest in Lincoln, but the remaining schedule provides ample opportunity to get bowl eligible and beyond.

10. Iowa 

Record: 3-2, 1-1

Last week: Lost to Ohio State, 35-7

This week: vs. Washington

You know Iowa’s strengths. But quarterback Cade McNamara ranks 15th out of 16 qualifying Big Ten quarterbacks in passing efficiency, and has finished with fewer than 100 passing yards in three of Iowa’s last four games.

11. Minnesota

Record: 3-3, 1-2

Last week: Beat USC, 24-17

This week: at UCLA

What a world we live in, in which Minnesota can allow 31 points to Iowa but hold USC to 17.

12. USC

Record: 3-2, 1-2

Last week: Lost to Minnesota, 24-17

This week: vs. Penn State

There remains a correlation between USC losing and Lincoln Riley sniping at reporters. Anyway, there’s a strong chance the Trojans are better than this ranking, but you have to actually win the games at some point.

13. Wisconsin

Record: 3-2, 1-1

Last week: Beat Purdue, 52-6

This week: at Rutgers

With an eventual four-game stretch against Penn State, Iowa, Oregon and Nebraska, it’s vital for the Badgers’ bowl hopes that they find a way to win in Piscataway.

14. Michigan State

Record: 3-3, 1-2

Last week: Lost to Oregon, 31-10

This week: Idle

Rough Friday night in Eugene for the Spartans, who managed only 250 yards and 52 yards rushing. 

15. Maryland

Record: 3-2, 0-2

Last week: Idle

This week: vs. Northwestern (Friday)

If the Terps can’t beat Northwestern this weekend, I’m not sure when their next Big Ten victory will come. Their remaining schedule: vs. USC, at Minnesota, at Oregon, vs. Rutgers, vs. Iowa, at Penn State.

16. UCLA

Record: 1-4, 0-3

Last week: Lost to Penn State, 27-11

This week: vs. Minnesota

Hawaii is 2-3 this season. Wonder if the Rainbow Warriors are kicking themselves for losing to the Bruins.

17. Northwestern

Record: 2-3, 0-2

Last week: Lost to Indiana, 41-24

This week: at Maryland (Friday)

One thing that gives me slight pause about Indiana? That Northwestern scored 24 points and passed for 243 yards and two touchdowns against them. I saw the Wildcats up close, and can’t imagine how they made that happen.

18. Purdue

Record: 1-4, 0-2

Last week: Lost to Wisconsin, 52-6

This week: at Illinois

The Boilermakers are bad. (How bad are they?) They’re so bad that UCLA and Northwestern are ranked ahead of them in OnMontlake.com’s midseason Big Ten power rankings. 

— Christian Caple, On Montlake