What good are preseason predictions without accountability?
It’s been too long since I sat down at season’s end to look back at how I thought things would play out back in August. In addition to just being kind of fun, I think it’s important to remind ourselves how the season actually developed relative to what we expected throughout the offseason and during training camp.
So here’s a breakdown of my 2024 preseason prediction post, and how each of my picks aligned with Washington’s actual results.
First, let’s look back at my game-by-game predictions.
Aug. 31, vs. Weber State
Prediction: Washington 41, Weber State 14
Actual: Washington 35, Weber State 3
The offense wasn’t quite as good as I’d expected against their FCS foe, but the defense was better.
Sept. 7, vs. Eastern Michigan
Prediction: Washington 31, Eastern Michigan 17
Actual: Washington 30, Eastern Michigan 9
Pretty close. If not for UW’s early goal-line stand …
Sept. 14, vs. Washington State (Lumen Field)
Prediction: Washington 28, Washington State 24
Actual: Washington State 24, Washington 19
At least I knew how many points the Cougars would score.
Sept. 21, vs. Northwestern
Prediction: Washington 30, Northwestern 17
Actual: Washington 24, Northwestern 5
Gave Northwestern’s offense a bit too much credit here. If I’d known they were going to kick a field goal down by 15 points late in the third quarter, I might have bumped their total down some.
Sept. 27, at Rutgers
Prediction: Rutgers 27, Washington 24
Actual: Rutgers 21, Washington 18
I stuck with a three-point winning margin for Rutgers in my pick the week of the game, too. What a strange superpower.
Oct. 5, vs. Michigan
Prediction: Michigan 20, Washington 14
Actual: Washington 27, Michigan 17
Michigan’s offense looked about how I expected. Looking back, this was probably the Huskies’ best game on offense, all things considered. Look at it this way: they put up 27 points on a defense that held the national champs to 10.
Oct. 12, at Iowa
Prediction: Iowa 17, Washington 16
Actual: Iowa 40, Washington 16
Hey, I got Washington’s total right … but underestimated Iowa just a bit. (And to think I actually picked UW to win this game once it arrived.)
Oct. 26, at Indiana
Prediction: Washington 35, Indiana 24
Actual: Indiana 31, Washington 17
Definitely underestimated the Hoosiers. In an 18-team conference, the odds are greater for an overlooked program to rise up and surprise everybody.
Nov. 2, vs. USC
Prediction: Washington 31, USC 30
Actual: Washington 26, USC 21
Had a feeling before the season that the Trojans would drop a few before pulling into Husky Stadium, and that proved correct. And while the margin wasn’t as tight as my prediction, it did come down to the final minute.
Nov. 9, at Penn State
Prediction: Penn State 32, Washington 21
Actual: Penn State 35, Washington 6
The Huskies weren’t nearly as competitive here as I imagined, mostly because the gulf between Penn State’s defensive front and UW’s o-line was even wider than expected — and the Nittany Lions were just better this year than I had assumed.
Nov. 15, vs. UCLA
Prediction: Washington 34, UCLA 17
Actual: Washington 31, UCLA 19
This is the night Demond Williams Jr. became UW’s starting quarterback. The freshman replaced Will Rogers after two second-half interceptions, and helped turn a 14-13 lead into a 31-13 margin by the final two minutes.
Nov. 30, at Oregon
Prediction: Oregon 35, Washington 27
Actual: Oregon 49, Washington 21
Another game that wasn’t nearly as competitive as I predicted. If I’d known Oregon would sack Williams 10 times, I might have recalibrated.
Here’s how it all came down, regular-season only:
Final record prediction: 7-5 (4-5 in Big Ten)
Actual final record: 6-6 (4-5)
Record on game-by-game picks: 9-3 (7-2)
Predicted offensive ppg: 27.7
Actual offensive ppg: 22.5 (23.4 counting Sun Bowl)
Predicted ppg allowed: 22.8
Actual ppg allowed: 22.8 (23.8 counting Sun Bowl)
All things considered, it wasn’t a bad year of predictions. The Huskies finished one game worse than what I predicted, but I nailed their Big Ten record, and only missed two of my preseason picks for their conference games. Of course, I’m probably not alone there, as Washington’s home schedule was loaded with winnable games, and its road schedule featured its biggest challenges, which made preseason prognostications fairly straightforward. They were one yard away from proving my Apple Cup pick correct, and probably should have proven my Rutgers pick wrong. And look at that — a direct hit on their points-per-game allowed. That probably won’t happen again (and there still were some pretty big misses on a single-game basis).
I did overestimate the offense by a pretty big margin. If the Huskies actually had averaged 27.7 points per game, they’d have finished in a tie with Iowa for 72nd in FBS. Instead, they finished 104th.
Here’s how I predicted the final Big Ten standings, with each team’s actual finish in parentheses:
1. Ohio State (4)
2. Oregon (1)
3. Michigan (t7)
4. Penn State (t2)
5. Iowa (t5)
6. Nebraska (t12)
7. Wisconsin (t12)
8. Rutgers (t9)
9. Washington (t9)
10. USC (t9)
11. Minnesota (t7)
12. Maryland (17)
13. Michigan State (t12)
14. UCLA (t12)
15. Indiana (t2)
16. Northwestern (16)
17. Illinois (t5)
18. Purdue (18)
Obviously, nobody accounts for ties in their standings projections, so this comparison isn’t one-to-one. Broadly speaking, though, Washington was among my most accurate picks, as the Huskies finished in a three-way tie for ninth place with Rutgers and USC, the two teams I had above and behind them in my preseason predictions.
My worst pick was Indiana, which finished 13 places higher than my prediction; Illinois was a close second, finishing 12 places higher than what I picked.
Michigan, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Maryland and, uh, Ohio State wound up a fair bit lower than I predicted, while Oregon, Penn State and Minnesota outperformed my expectations by some margin.
Direct hits, besides UW, were Iowa, Northwestern and Purdue. And USC, Michigan State and UCLA were about where I expected, too, if you factor in ties.
On to my statistical predictions …
First rushing TD of the season: Cam Davis, from 2 yards out
Actual: It was actually Jonah Coleman, from 5 yards out in UW’s 35-3 win over Weber State. A holding penalty wiped out Coleman’s 44-yard touchdown run prior to that.
First receiving TD of the season: Jeremiah Hunter, on a 9-yard fade
Actual: It wound up being true freshman tight end Decker DeGraaf, for a 33-yard score up the right sideline, also in the opener.
Leading passer: Will Rogers (o/u 3,150 yards)
Actual: Rogers didn’t quite get there, finishing the season with 2,458 passing yards in 11 starts. The Huskies did hit the over as a team, though, if you add Demond Williams Jr.’s 944 yards (though he only had 570 during the regular season, which would leave the duo shy of the total at 3,028).
Leading rusher: Jonah Coleman (o/u 900 yards)
Actual: Coleman hit the over with 1,053 yards, and actually eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark against UCLA before totaling just 45 yards against Oregon and Louisville.
Leading receiver (yards): Denzel Boston (o/u 850)
Actual: Boston finished the regular season with 807 receiving yards before adding another 27 in the bowl game. He was UW’s leading receiver entering the Sun Bowl, though Giles Jackson surpassed him by putting up 162 yards to finish with 893.
Leading receiver (catches): Boston (o/u 77.5)
Actual: This was Jackson, too, as he caught 74 passes in the regular season and finished with 85 after catching 11 against Louisville.
Leading tackler: Carson Bruener (o/u 92.5)
Actual: Have to pat myself on the back for this line. Bruener did lead the Huskies in tackles and finished the regular season with 93, hitting the over by 0.5. He added another 11 in the Sun Bowl to finish the season with 104.
Sacks leader: Zach Durfee (o/u 5.5)
Actual: Injuries limited Durfee to six games and 2.5 sacks. Alphonzo Tuputala wound up leading the team with 3.5 sacks.
Interceptions leader: Kam Fabiculanan (1.5)
Actual: Fabiculanan actually did hit the over here, snagging two interceptions — a big one in the win over Michigan, and another against USC — but it was Bruener who wound up the team leader with three. First, he picked off Northwestern quarterback Jack Lausch, then grabbed two interceptions off USC quarterback Miller Moss. And he did it all with a bad shoulder.
Offensive player of the year (non-QB): Jonah Coleman
Actual: I’d say this was accurate, as Coleman led UW in scrimmage yards and touches.
Defensive player of the year: Carson Bruener
Actual: Think it’s fair to say this came to fruition, too, as Bruener led the team in tackles and interceptions and made several key plays throughout the season. Coleman and Bruener were pretty obvious picks.
Offensive freshman of the year: Adam Mohammed
Actual: Mohammed didn’t end up getting enough touches to claim this title. DeGraaf spent much of the season as the frontrunner, but you’d probably have to say Demond Williams Jr. overtook him by the end of the year.
Defensive freshman of the year: Jordan Shaw
Actual: Shaw definitely was a key part of the defense, but I think you’d probably have to give this Khmori House. It’s close.
True freshmen who don’t redshirt: Mohammed, Harris, QB Demond Williams Jr., TE Decker DeGraaf, OL Paki Finau, LB Khmori House, S Peyton Waters
Actual: I was one off here — everyone on this list burned their redshirt except Finau, who did appear in four games. And the aforementioned freshmen were the only to exceed the redshirt limit.
Breakout candidate, offense: Denzel Boston
Actual: Think it’s fair to say Boston was this guy, yeah? Maybe you’d consider Jackson, too. Or Williams, depending on your criteria.
Breakout candidate, defense: Zach Durfee
Actual: Durfee didn’t end up playing enough to break out. I’d instead go with Thaddeus Dixon, who went from being UW’s sixth DB to a starting cornerback and one of the team’s top defensive players.
Biggest impact non-starter, offense: Cam Davis
Actual: Davis rushed for 190 yards and no touchdowns, which isn’t quite the role I envisioned for him. Does Keleki Latu count? If so, he’s my pick, but he started all 12 games after Quentin Moore’s injury, so maybe he doesn’t fit the spirit of the exercise. Decker DeGraaf might be a better choice. The Huskies didn’t go very deep offensively.
Biggest impact non-starter, defense: Voi Tunuufi
Actual: Tunuufi started 11 games, so he didn’t end up qualifying. Instead I’d give this distinction to either House or safety Makell Esteen … though House started four games and Esteen did start five games himself. What do you think?
All-Big Ten candidates (any team): LB Carson Bruener, CB Ephesians Prysock, K Grady Gross
Actual: Not counting honorable mentions, Bruener and Coleman were the only UW players to earn any recognition from Big Ten coaches; each was selected third-team all-conference.
— Christian Caple, On Montlake
